Projections of psychiatrists’ distribution for patients in Japan: a utilization-based approach

Sugawara, Norio; Yasui-Furukori, Norio; Shimoda, Kazutaka

doi:10.1186/s12960-021-00594-z

Human Resources for Health

Table 1 Forecasted psychiatrists and patients, 2015 to 2045

From: Projections of psychiatrists’ distribution for patients in Japan: a utilization-based approach

	Psychiatrists				Schizophrenia				Mood disorders				Alzheimer's disease				Vascular dementia and others
	2015	2025	2035	2045	2015	2025	2035	2045	2015	2025	2035	2045	2015	2025	2035	2045	2015	2025	2035	2045
Hokkaido	733	683	619	545	9569	9071	8297	7303	5194	4998	4537	3993	4227	5647	6804	6744	1725	2313	2753	2819
Aomori	153	135	116	96	2371	2160	1877	1562	1275	1164	1013	838	1089	1357	1547	1530	441	556	628	632
Iwate	125	113	100	86	2283	2118	1896	1641	1233	1144	1021	881	1146	1349	1485	1461	463	555	607	611
Miyagi	266	254	233	206	3955	3894	3656	3275	2177	2143	1993	1763	1645	2157	2624	2717	673	894	1067	1133
Akita	142	123	103	84	1912	1685	1419	1154	1020	904	769	618	1043	1213	1316	1262	418	498	533	521
Yamagata	146	132	117	100	1989	1827	1626	1401	1076	991	887	761	1079	1220	1341	1330	435	508	547	551
Fukushima	209	189	167	144	3388	3167	2831	2430	1821	1702	1525	1307	1614	1947	2260	2309	656	810	922	964
Ibaraki	241	227	208	185	5047	4871	4518	4035	2722	2667	2446	2184	1999	2664	3277	3297	831	1103	1333	1381
Tochigi	176	167	154	139	3398	3288	3077	2788	1839	1799	1675	1507	1343	1706	2083	2104	554	709	846	885
Gunma	232	219	202	183	3400	3280	3076	2782	1841	1804	1667	1511	1463	1883	2261	2247	603	779	922	946
Saitama	617	612	587	554	12,333	12,430	12,168	11,475	6747	6932	6612	6277	3984	6185	7754	7881	1682	2524	3166	3322
Chiba	624	614	584	548	10,672	10,612	10,279	9629	5821	5911	5594	5269	3703	5551	6851	6840	1553	2266	2798	2885
Tokyo	2057	2107	2108	2071	22,127	23,146	23,785	23,404	12,688	13,237	13,173	13,040	7822	10,612	12,467	13,286	3218	4348	5158	5597
Kanagawa	989	983	948	901	15,189	15,468	15,260	14,374	8470	8677	8321	7957	5236	7848	9665	10,052	2183	3212	3981	4238
Niigata	217	201	181	160	4051	3793	3455	3057	2196	2077	1883	1660	2045	2443	2773	2721	830	1013	1129	1141
Toyama	133	124	114	102	1880	1772	1639	1474	1015	978	891	800	913	1133	1307	1227	373	467	530	517
Ishikawa	163	156	146	134	1965	1898	1793	1646	1072	1057	984	905	875	1109	1329	1296	359	456	540	544
Fukui	92	86	79	72	1351	1279	1190	1071	734	705	654	589	660	786	907	896	268	326	369	375
Yamanashi	92	84	75	66	1443	1364	1235	1069	788	743	668	586	688	842	981	990	281	349	400	412
Nagano	228	213	195	175	3630	3458	3218	2883	1977	1899	1739	1570	1896	2283	2599	2568	775	946	1066	1079
Gifu	173	162	148	133	3474	3302	3062	2740	1894	1825	1663	1494	1514	1947	2260	2202	624	798	921	924
Shizuoka	342	324	300	272	6400	6142	5737	5183	3475	3385	3122	2837	2722	3635	4320	4304	1121	1495	1766	1810
Aichi	760	757	734	701	12,215	12,407	12,321	11,787	6807	6992	6754	6490	4257	6141	7486	7685	1772	2511	3068	3240
Mie	219	206	190	173	3111	2985	2790	2524	1701	1649	1514	1379	1367	1729	1994	1978	562	709	813	826
Shiga	128	126	122	114	2295	2314	2266	2139	1271	1296	1245	1178	892	1191	1474	1525	370	493	603	642
Kyoto	353	339	316	289	4399	4267	4053	3712	2441	2415	2240	2063	1852	2544	3039	2952	761	1036	1235	1238
Osaka	1052	1015	948	873	14,928	14,577	13,952	12,859	8275	8245	7650	7122	5454	7970	9382	9156	2262	3228	3834	3855
Hyogo	590	566	528	483	9460	9242	8788	8033	5192	5144	4794	4421	3832	5283	6377	6394	1577	2160	2597	2677
Nara	161	149	134	118	2365	2218	2010	1755	1286	1236	1103	973	993	1361	1633	1572	413	557	663	657
Wakayama	102	93	83	73	1705	1561	1401	1228	927	861	766	674	837	986	1085	1026	341	405	440	426
Tottori	96	90	83	75	995	933	859	778	540	516	475	426	529	613	697	691	213	255	284	289
Shimane	117	108	99	89	1227	1128	1030	927	661	620	567	506	718	807	881	836	290	335	358	350
Okayama	296	284	268	250	3244	3125	2976	2778	1784	1757	1654	1537	1556	1935	2234	2167	635	794	911	910
Hiroshima	370	359	339	316	4812	4667	4446	4137	2644	2619	2461	2287	2136	2768	3264	3177	878	1139	1331	1338
Yamaguchi	202	186	168	149	2494	2279	2059	1838	1345	1263	1132	1004	1282	1554	1740	1603	522	637	704	674
Tokushima	131	119	106	93	1345	1236	1108	969	727	677	604	525	683	790	889	851	278	328	361	356
Kagawa	142	134	124	113	1704	1610	1503	1369	921	890	823	745	834	1001	1155	1108	341	416	470	466
Ehime	141	130	117	103	2446	2273	2061	1824	1323	1246	1126	992	1230	1479	1691	1631	499	608	684	683
Kochi	123	110	97	84	1305	1173	1039	899	707	647	567	489	731	830	912	847	294	339	369	354
Fukuoka	856	846	812	764	8545	8511	8247	7777	4728	4777	4588	4300	3541	4713	5772	5858	1450	1936	2339	2451
Saga	161	152	141	128	1412	1342	1244	1132	768	742	693	624	692	818	945	958	280	339	382	396
Nagasaki	219	200	179	156	2420	2233	1990	1733	1308	1216	1092	952	1213	1440	1640	1620	492	594	664	675
Kumamoto	335	317	296	271	3047	2893	2677	2436	1667	1600	1491	1353	1569	1861	2126	2136	635	772	865	889
Oita	181	169	155	139	2036	1907	1738	1564	1107	1050	963	860	1041	1266	1456	1406	423	522	591	590
Miyazaki	191	177	161	143	1918	1786	1605	1425	1038	977	890	784	961	1170	1355	1346	391	483	551	558
Kagoshima	265	243	219	194	2859	2659	2386	2101	1554	1441	1312	1151	1522	1730	1949	1987	615	722	793	826
Okinawa	268	274	274	267	2199	2339	2379	2315	1239	1295	1310	1277	793	1065	1350	1561	328	448	557	653
Mean	332	320**	302**	279**	4602	4504**	4298**	3966**	2533	2509*	2354**	2180**	1898	2523**	2994**	3007**	781	1036**	1222**	1262**

The Wilcoxon Signed-Ranks Test with the Bonferroni correction was employed for comparisons between 2015 and other time points
*p < 0.05, **p < 0.001

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ISSN: 1478-4491

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